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聚烯烃价格下跌& PET

A flat-to-downward pricing trajectory generally applies to all five major 商品 resins going into August.
#resinpricing #pvc #聚苯乙烯

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进入下半年,价格下跌 PP,PET和PE。由于前者的季节性库存积累以及后者的原料成本上涨压力,PP和PET的价格可能在7月份触底。相比之下,由于全球价格下跌和充足的价格,PE的价格有望进一步下跌 耗材。同时价格 of PS and PVC were 在PS的情况下,在苯原料的驱动下向上移动 and 供应商’声称PVC供应紧张。但是,对于两种树脂,所有其他主要驱动因素都指出 to lower tabs.

这些是Resin 技术,Inc.(RTi)的采购顾问的意见,来自这些公司的高级编辑 石化线 (PCW );以及塑料交易所的首席执行官Michael Greenberg。
 

PE价格 Flat to Down

Polyethylene prices were expected to 下降 in the June-July timeframe, despite 供应商’六月试图提振 prices by 3¢/lb, following implementation of a similar hike in 可能. 供应商推迟了3¢/ lb增加到7月。但是,RTi’s v.p. PE的Mike Burns说 价格有机会 to 下降 3¢/lb in 7月,然后是本月的统一定价。”全球价格下降了,出口价格下降了,国内价格必须跟上全球价格范围。”  伯恩斯认为,没有生产或天气中断的创纪录的库存应该继续防止价格上涨并增加下行压力。 PCW’高级编辑大卫·巴里(David Barry)也期望3¢ 下降 在七月。引用行业 figures through 可能, Barry noted that PE domestic sales were up 2.4% year to date, and export volumes were up more than 50%, while production rates were up 7%.

PE价格趋势

Barry还报告说,PE现货价格继续下跌,跌至2009年以来的最低水平。 ’s 格林伯格报道 that the spot PE market 恩 ded June somewhat sluggish, contrasting with the first five months, which saw volumes well above that same period in 2018. “As a whole, June 原为 the lightest trading month of the year, as negative sentiment slowed processor purchases, which weighed on prices.”
 

PP价格下跌 for Now

6月聚丙烯价格下跌3.5¢RTi的Scott Newell表示,/ lb与丙烯单体的收缩步调一致’诉PP市场 PCW’David Barry和The Plastic Exchange’s Greenberg.

Barry指出,由于单体成本下降以及国内需求低迷,PP现货价格持平。“4-5月国内销售强劲,但树脂价格下跌和疲软的制造业数据 加工商谨慎购买新产品。  

Barry认为现货供应情况不错,但在三月和四月繁忙之后,采购活动相对平静。 RTi’纽维尔(Newell)曾预测过 单体和PP价格下降,基于8¢/lb 下降 in spot prices, noted that demand has been lackluster, with a bit of an uptick in 可能 并且现货PP大幅打折。评论现货PP市场, Greenberg reported that spot PP trading 原为 improving. “处理器选择了价格合理的要约,但在出现时却容易回避相对较高的要价。上游库存是我们追踪的十年来最轻的库存。”

PP价格趋势

RTi’s Newell noted that June 原为 the fourth month of continuous drawdowns from supplier inventories—下降了1.75亿磅。 Days of supply dropped from 39 days in 可能 to a “comfortable” 31.5 days in June. PCW’s Barry指出,PP的供应情况有点“mixed bag,” 取决于供应商。“I don’t think the market is oversupplied so much that 供应商 will cut production.”这三位消息人士均表示全球PP需求疲软以及海外新产能 丙烯单体的供应形势良好。由于通常在7-8月是库存积压的好时机,Newell冒险地将PP价格 持平或略高 in that time frame. 
 

PS价格 Up for Now

Polystyrene prices were flat 对于 June, 但 upward pressure 原为 developing 对于 July, as spot benzene prices shot up to $3/gal. Both PCW’RTi的Barry和Robin Chesshier’诉PE,PS和尼龙6的市场预期PS价格将上涨 by several cents if 7月苯合约价格从$ 2.34 / gal升至$ 3 / gal或更高。切舍尔 看到了前所未有的7-8的潜力¢PS的/ lb价格上涨。巴里预测 a hike closer to 3-4¢/lb.

PS价格趋势

国内PS价格上涨 a total of 4¢/ lb自年初以来。尽管需求低迷,但即使在季节性情况下也落后于2018年 higher demand period. Chesshier noted that the benzene uptick 原为 being driven by tighter supplies both domestically and in exports—后者是由于巴拿马运河地区的干旱,导致运输价格上涨。同样值得注意的是,由于国内外需求低迷,苯乙烯单体的现货价格没有变动,其中仅欧洲的需求就下降了近三位数。如先前报道,国内 supply 原为 up 2% while demand 原为 up only 1%, and exports 对于 both monomer and PS were down 17%.
 

PVC价格 Flat to Higher

PVC prices were flat in 可能 and well into June, 但 供应商 were still posting a June 2¢RTi的Mark Kallman表示,/ lb增加’诉PVC和工程树脂,以及 PCW 高级编辑唐娜·托德(Donna Todd)。 Kallman冒险认为7月份的价格可能持平或上涨1¢/lb, as 供应商 push to implement price increases attributed to tight supplies caused by planned and unplanned production downtime. Domestic production 原为 down 2.6% through 可能.

PVC价格趋势

但是,所有其他市场指标都反对 增长:国内需求比2018年下降3.7%,尽管出口增长1.44%。 5月份的房屋开工量比上一年有所减少,总体施工季节为 考曼指出,进展缓慢。而且,两位消息人士还说 六月乙烯合约价格 was 预计再次下降。乙烯价格从去年秋天一直下跌 May totaled 9.5¢/ lb,大约下降了4.56¢/lb in 根据Todd所说,PVC分子。两位消息人士也提出质疑 suppliers’提价的其他理由-出口价格上涨。“Since only about 30% of U.S. PVC production goes into the export market, even some 供应商 have confided that this should not be able to pull up the domestic market, reported PCW’s Todd.
 

PET价格 Plunges but Not for Long

PET树脂价格维持在50中期¢/ lb范围在6月底之前为10¢ drop from 可能. The plunge 原为 driven primarily by lower feedstock costs and plentiful supply of imported PET from around the world, according to PCW 高级编辑Xavier Cronin。有趣的是,4月份的PET树脂进口量实际上比2018年4月有所下降。但是,经过数月积累的对南加州,东海岸和中西部地区的进口仍保持了过剩状态。 a buyers’ market.

同时,价格被认为触底反弹,分销商指出,7月PTA和MEG原料的预计成本较高。此外,预计油价上涨还会增加 这些产品的进一步下游价格压力 原料。考虑到这一点,预计7月PET价格将首先反弹至60¢/ lb级,然后再加上2-5¢/ lb,取决于业务是现货交易还是基于与每月公布的原料价格挂钩的合同。 克罗宁解释说,现货价格通常高于合同价格。

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